Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.109099 0.127504 0.148746 0.175238 0.207610 0.246163 0.295972
2025-10-12 0.088080 0.111531 0.141393 0.182801 0.239685 0.316513 0.430639
2025-10-19 0.071938 0.097473 0.132848 0.186750 0.269217 0.394855 0.609517
2025-10-26 0.059765 0.086001 0.125221 0.190455 0.301149 0.491343 0.867564
2025-11-02 0.048825 0.073972 0.114132 0.186365 0.321194 0.581051 1.176301
2025-11-09 0.039517 0.062546 0.101473 0.176478 0.329106 0.656701 1.523491
2025-11-16 0.034003 0.056226 0.096012 0.178340 0.361997 0.805884 2.194000
2025-11-23 0.029449 0.050659 0.090680 0.179205 0.394926 0.981819 3.170305
2025-11-30 0.026138 0.046706 0.087551 0.184089 0.441561 1.235748 4.846069
2025-12-07 0.023257 0.043016 0.084135 0.187534 0.488297 1.539973 7.444406
2025-12-14 0.020231 0.038473 0.077906 0.182287 0.509095 1.785134 10.517841
2025-12-21 0.016888 0.032707 0.067774 0.163849 0.480180 1.815029 12.397444
2025-12-28 0.015277 0.030454 0.065480 0.166949 0.530046 2.279540 20.408032
2026-01-04 0.014113 0.028983 0.064765 0.174724 0.605439 3.017571 37.882823
2026-01-11 0.012927 0.027253 0.063029 0.179004 0.673136 3.876568 70.197975
2026-01-18 0.011877 0.025662 0.061316 0.182978 0.746122 4.991413 138.083928
2026-01-25 0.010704 0.023575 0.057795 0.179443 0.781908 5.946076 246.730608
2026-02-01 0.009516 0.021267 0.053177 0.170272 0.782028 6.607381 396.458895
2026-02-08 0.008807 0.020074 0.051566 0.172287 0.852135 8.400010 929.405879
2026-02-15 0.008153 0.018924 0.049840 0.173307 0.920442 10.596119 2425.819063
2026-02-22 0.007660 0.018130 0.049048 0.178159 1.024664 14.155274 9334.129319
2026-03-01 0.007186 0.017311 0.048004 0.181605 1.127029 18.705920 50866.227378
2026-03-08 0.006599 0.016090 0.045388 0.176663 1.157500 22.033878 258365.136329